Have you ever wondered how the Sports Betting "smart money" became the smart money? Do you wonder what the sports betting smart money does differently than the amateurs?
Here's an example of I game I analyzed, and how I went about deciding which team had the edge. Once you can identify an edge, it's easy to make money with sports betting:
UAB vs. SMU-5
First, let's start by pointing out that while one of these teams is a powerhouse, or even a top 25 team. UAB is 3-5 SU this season, and is averaging only 19 points per game against teams like Marshall, Troy, and Rice to name a few. Miraculously, UAB opened their season against Oklahoma and only lost 24-17 in a game where they were 24 point underdogs. Since that game, UAB is only 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games, and that was when they beat up on Troy (who ever heard of a college named Troy ??) 21-3.
On the other hand, SMU is playing at home tonight, and they've done well well ATS this season, going 4-3 ATS. SMU is 6-3 ATS in their last nine games, and also 6-3 ATS in their last nine home games.
As with any college game, it's always smart to see how well teams do at home. The home field, depending on who is playing, can be a very important tactical advantage. My impression going into this game was that SMU had a determined home field advantage that would make them a decent pick going up against a poor UAB team.
So how did my initial impression compare to the actual reality? Does SMU have a real home-field advantage?
How about this stat -aside from going 6-3 ATS in their last 9 home games, SMU has scored 31, 55, 45, and 40 points in their last 4 home games. In their last 4 home games with betting lines, SMU has outscored their opponents on average 31-13 per game, while the point spread in these games has averaged only SMU being favored by -3 points.
In other words, in SMU's last 4 home games, not only have they won ATS, but they beat the SPREAD by an average of about 15 points per game.
The last piece of the puzzle is UAB's record playing away. They're only 3-7 SU in their last 10 road games, and 5-5 ATS. They were actually shut out by Georgia a few weeks back, and lost SU to Rice 34-33 in a game in which they were favored.
The bottom line is that everything points to SMU being able to, and more importantly, inclined to, running up the score at home against UAB. I look for SMU to win this one 41-28.
Although I am not "officially" recommend betting the over / under on this game, I will tell you that I would lean towards taking the Over 49 1/2 if I was forced to take a side. Sometimes in a game like this it's not a bad idea to split the amount you were going to bet on the game into two smaller bets, one on the game and one on the over / under. This way you are risking the same amount, but your risk is spread between two relatively independent outcomes, the game itself and the over / under.
As you can see from the above analysis, it is important to dig deep into the stats to identify any patterns. In this case, the stats showed that SMU was a very strong team at home, and that UAB was very weak on the road. As it turned out, SMU won 22-9, keeping UAB out of the end zone all night.